Investors, Vacant Homes, and the Golden State Warriors

Tuesday morning news drop

• Three Types of Investors The first investor is always looking for signs of a bottom; The second group always thinks we’re going lower and is convinced that every rally is of the bear market variety; The third group goes back and forth between the two. Hopeful on up days and despondent on down days. (Irrelevant Investor)

• Americans Are Building Vacation-Home Empires With Easy-Money Loans Selling risky mortgages based on volatile per-night Airbnb income could end badly for communities, borrowers, and investors. (Bloomberg)

• The Data Shows Taxing Empty Homes Works BC’s speculation and vacancy tax returned 20,000 empty units to the rental market, says economist Tsur Somerville. (Tyee)

• Silicon Valley’s Horrible Bosses: Dispatches From the Elon Musk School of Management (The Atlantic)

• ‘If you work hard and succeed, you’re a loser’: Can you really wing it to the top? Forget the spreadsheets and make it up as you go along – that’s the message of leaders from Elon Musk to Boris Johnson. But is acting on instinct really a good idea? (The Guardian)

• The land of the free leads the world in incarceration. Why? Reform advocates say there are other ways to respond to crimes — from rehabilitation to trauma treatment. (Vox)

• Merrick Garland’s impossible choice: Whether or not to prosecute Donald Trump The Jan. 6 committee is making the case that Trump is part of a criminal conspiracy, but there are many things to consider in a case against the former president. (Grid)

• What if there had been no adults in the room on January 6? Thursday’s January 6 committee hearing explored the scary alternate universe if Mike Pence hadn’t stood up to Trump. (Vox)

• Inside the Golden State Warriors’ return to glory: Stephen Curry & Co. all had their moments of doubt along the way, but they never stopped believing. (Sports Illustrated)

Bitcoin, Crypto, Teather, and the Meltdown

Monday morning news drop

• The Coin That Could Wreck Crypto As cryptocurrencies have plunged, attention has focused on a potential point of vulnerability: the market’s reliance on a so-called stablecoin called Tether (New York Times)

• Bitcoin Plummets Below $20,000 for First Time Since Late 2020 Its fall was accelerated in recent weeks by the collapse of two major cryptocurrency projects while sowing doubts about the stability of the overall cryptocurrency market. (New York Timestimes.com/2022/06/18/technology/bitcoin-20000.html)

• Crypto is melting down. Here’s who’s hurt: These are gut-wrenching days if you’re an investor in stocks or bonds. But things could be worse: You could have your money in crypto. Bitcoin, the leading crypto asset and the one most familiar to laypersons, has lost about 70% of its value since Nov. 9, when its price peaked at $69,000. (Los Angeles Times)

• The Fed’s Policy Mistake has Been Made A slowdown is all but certain. But does it turn into a recession? Does it turn into a deeper recession than expected? Does it spill over into credit markets and cause a debt deflation? (Pragmatic Capitalism)

• A Ragtag Band of Hackers Is Waging Cyberwar on Putin’s Supply Lines In Belarus, forces opposed to President Alexander Lukashenko have been derailing Russia’s war against Ukraine. (Businessweek)

• The Celtics should be on their way to the title. But … Stephen Curry. Now, the Boston Celtics should have won. If basketball was a meritocracy, in which the better team always reaped the rewards, then the Celtics would take Game 5 and a 3-2 series. (Washington Post)

• PGA Tour vs LIV: How Saudi Arabian money ignited a golf war A new Saudi-backed series has upended the world of golf, but with players forced to field questions about Jamal Khashoggi, it has not been without controversy. (Middle East Eye)

• When the Lamp Switched On: How Pixar Went From Experimental Studio to Commercial Juggernaut From the stewardship of George Lucas to Steve Jobs to Mickey Mouse himself, the story of Pixar is marked by breakups, risk-taking, and sheer creative flair (The Ringer)

• Wall Street’s Latest Bear Market May Be Here to Stay for a While US stocks have entered a bear market and if history is any guide, it could be long and painful (Bloomberg)

Videos of the Week, Inflation, Bear Markets, Fashion, and Ziggy Stardust

Friday morning news drop

• Bernanke: Inflation Isn’t Going to Bring Back the 1970s: Although inflation was very unpopular in the ’60s and ’70s, as it (understandably) is today, any inclination by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by raising interest rates, which could also slow the economy and raise unemployment, met stiff political resistance. President Lyndon Johnson, attempting to insulate the public from the economic costs of an unpopular war, put intense pressure on the Fed chairman, William McChesney Martin, to keep interest rates low. (New York Times)

• Stopping inflation is going to hurt The economy will feel worse before it feels better. (Vox)

• Bear Markets and Recessions Happen More Often Than You Think The U.S. has been in recession 14 percent of the time since World War II. But being prepared can minimize hardship and even offer investing opportunities. (New York Times)

• Increase Your Exposure to Humility During a Bear Market: We’ve been in a bear market for a while now but never reached the technical definition of a 20% peak-to-trough drawdown in the S&P 500…until yesterday that is. This is now the 13th decline of 20% or worse since World War II: (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• Why we’re not buying the dip in stocks 1. Increasing risks off falling profits; 2. Equities haven’t cheapened that much; 3. Growing risk that the Fed tightens too much (BlackRock)

• The rising popularity of sustainable investing — and the controversies surrounding it Interest in ESG-guided investment is on the rise, but critics are concerned about 'greenwashing' (CBC)

• Why Biden Is Getting More Bipartisan Laws Than Anyone Expected I was skeptical he could convince Republicans to support anything. I was wrong. (New York Magazine)

• Can streetwear media brands really sell clothes? First Zalando acquires Highsnobiety, now rival media brand Hypebeast is expanding its commerce offering with its first US store. Vogue Business examines their strategies for retail success. (Vogue Business)

• The Wild Arrival of Digital Fashion To embrace your style in virtual realms, you might first have to completely change the way you think about fashion. (GQ)

• How David Bowie’s Ziggy Stardust Redefined Stardom Released 50 years ago this month, Bowie’s seminal album introduced the world to a shape-shifting alter ego who left an indelible mark on music and pop culture. (Wall Street Journal)

Videos of the Week

The Yin & Yang of Gerry Lopez Trailer: From award-winning documentary filmmaker Stacy Peralta comes Patagonia’s ''The Yin & Yang of Gerry Lopez,'' a film that lifts the veil on one of surfing’s most enigmatic heroes. While “Mr. Pipeline” is famously known for his calm demeanour in the tube, Gerry built his career with aggressive surfing that left behind a trail of blood and tears. Gerry is as radical as he is Zen; he transcends categorization. He’s one of the most influential surfers and surfboard shapers of all time, an entrepreneur, a family man, a movie star and a lifelong yogi who brought surfing to new frontiers. His influence on modern surfing is immeasurable, and for the first time, his story is being told in full.

A week in Teahupoo with Matahi Drollet

When We Were Knights: How can you express everything that you want to somebody you love, knowing that if you don't, that might be the last opportunity that you have? That is a reality that we all face, but for BASE jumpers, the risk of death sometimes results in something amazing and unexpected - love.

CJ Hauptman Shreds The Shore: 14 year old CJ has been putting on some serious work and his progression is simply insane! Some of the lines he sends in this video, in the wet, are truly mind blowing. Way to go CJ, this is awesome. Video: Kelsey Toevs.

Bear Markets, Crypto, Working from Home, and Alberta Energy

Thursday morning news drop

• So Bearish it Hurts Okay, so as I’m typing this, my wife called me and said, “I’m at Nordstrom returning clothes because it’s a bear market.” She was being funny, but she actually said this. She told me it’s all over Facebook and Eyewitness news. “Bear market, bear market, bear market. Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’s everywhere.” I’m using quotes because it’s a real thing she said. (Irrelevant Investor)

• ‘The Music Has Stopped’: Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall Crypto companies are laying off staff, freezing withdrawals and trying to stem losses, raising questions about the health of the ecosystem. (New York Times)

• Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X All Basically Agree on WFH: Support for hybrid working is high across demographics. But bosses should ask why — and address the reasons. (Bloomberg)

• Stores Have Too Much Stuff. Here’s Where They’re Slashing Prices. Retailers are getting ready to cut prices of goods that were popular during the pandemic. Expect ‘discounts like you’ve never seen before.’ (Wall Street Journal)

• How Did Guns Get So Powerful? Decade by decade, firearms have become deadlier—and tightened their grip on our collective imagination. (New Yorker)

• Alberta renewable energy surge could power 4,500 jobs Unique market is attracting billions of dollars from companies looking for cheap clean energy, or carbon offsets (Narwhal)

• Russia Is Taking Over Ukraine’s Internet In occupied Ukraine, people’s internet is being routed to Russia—and subjected to its powerful censorship and surveillance machine. (Wired)

• A Texas Teen-Ager’s Abortion Odyssey The Heartbeat Act is forcing families to journey to oversubscribed clinics in other states—offering a preview of life in post-Roe America. (New Yorker)

• Anti-money laundering inquiry calls for sweeping changes to tackle dirty money in B.C. Commissioner speaking live after releasing report into 'staggering' money laundering problem (CBC)

• U.S. central bank hikes interest rate by biggest amount since 1994 The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points in effort to rein in inflation (CBC)

Stocks, Cryptocurrency, and Real Estate

Wednesday morning news drop

• Bitcoin: Why is the largest cryptocurrency crashing? The first rule of writing about Bitcoin is: don't write about Bitcoin. The past 24 hours have been catastrophic for the grande dame of cryptocurrency - even by Bitcoin standards. (BBC)

• When stocks, houses and crypto fall, where does all that money go? As asset values plunge, it seems intuitively wrong, but the money just disappears. (CBC)

• How bear markets trick gullible investors: The majority of the biggest daily jumps occur during bear markets (Marketwatch)

• We’re Now in a Bear Market: Everything you need to know right now about crashing stocks. (Slate)

• Wall Street’s Favorite Recession Signal Is Back as Curves Invert: Short-term yields climb faster as Fed hikes to slow economy May inflation surge spurs speculation of 75-basis point hike (Bloomberg)

• Insiders Put Recession Angst Aside to Binge on Their Own Stocks Purchases poised to top sales for first month since March 2020 Buoyancy at odds with souring mood from Wall Street, investors. (Bloomberg)

• S&P 500 Sector Quilt: Why it’s so difficult to pick the best sectors to invest in. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• The End of the Millennial Lifestyle Subsidy: Something beyond rising energy and labor costs is leading to sticker shock on once-cheap urban amenities. It’s not just inflation, it’s the end of the VC-funded Millennial Consumer Subsidy. (The Atlantic)

• Elon’s Twitter twist: Musk’s big tech ‘best’ offer looks bogus (New York Post)

• It’s time to face facts: Elon Musk is a terrible boss The arrogant, king-like evolution of Elon Musk the boss. (MSNBC)

• Tom Hanks Explains It All. Is it telling, then, that in this time of declining trust in our institutions and one another, Tom Hanks is now playing a bad guy? (New York Times)

• These 40 ‘overvalued’ housing markets could see 15% to 20% home price declines if a recession hits A housing bubble requires both a rush of speculators entering into the market and "overvalued" home prices. Oh, and the bust at the end, of course. (Fortune)

NFT Thefts, Russian War on Food Supply, and Doxxing

Tuesday morning news drop

• Thefts, Fraud and Lawsuits at the World’s Biggest NFT Marketplace: OpenSea, one of the highest-profile crypto start-ups, is facing a backlash over stolen and plagiarized nonfungible tokens. (New York Times)

• How San Francisco Became a Failed City: But I do need you to love San Francisco a little bit, like I do a lot, in order to hear the story of how my city fell apart—and how it just might be starting to pull itself back together. (The Atlantic)

• Russia’s war on the world’s food supply: I assumed the Russians were primarily interested in hurting the Ukrainian economy by denying them export income and secondarily interested in raising global grain prices to benefit their own grain exporters. But Russia has halted grain exports and is now arguing that western countries should lift their sanctions on Russia in order to get the Russian grain flowing. Putin’s thinking on this issue seems driven by ideology rather than any practical consideration. (Slow Boring)

• Doxxing and death threats against U.S. poll workers intensify as the right wing continues its ‘campaign of fear’ “The vitriol seems to have turned up, and so has the level of expertise,” (Grid)

• It’s Time to Get Biofuels Out of Your Gas Tank Blending mandates were supposed to help tackle emissions. In practice, plant-derived alternatives are starting to become an impediment. (Bloomberg)

• Lessons From the Golden Age of the Mall Walkers Shopping malls won over a wide range of admirers, from teens to seniors, by providing something they couldn’t find in their public parks or sidewalks: a safe pedestrian experience. (Bloomberg)

• Author Lyndsie Bourgon on BC’s connection to the larger problem of timber poaching logging is a local problem, but a lack of understanding of its causes and effects will make it worse (Capital Daily)

Google AI, Economic Vibes, The Privilege of Beauty, and the EU

Monday morning news drop

• Google engineer put on leave after saying AI chatbot has become sentient Blake Lemoine says system has perception of, and ability to express thoughts and feelings equivalent to a human child (Guardian)

• The bad vibes economy Is the economy actually bad, or does everyone just feel like it is? This sense of dread is so pervasive that it might surprise you to hear that many aspects of the US economy are generally in good shape right now. The unemployment rate is low, and the labor market is strong. Job openings are at near-record levels, and many workers who want to find something better are doing so. (Vox)

• What Bosses Lost in the Fight Against Empty Offices: Leverage Employer plans have played out like a game of chicken. Now workers are rebelling outright, and executives are trying everything to make the office worth it. (New York Times)

• The Shark is on the attack again: With decades of resentment and an appetite for combat, ‘The Shark’ is throwing golf into chaos again. This time, he’s doing it with Saudi money. (Washington Post)

• The Greatest Privilege We Never Talk About: Beauty The benefits of being attractive are exorbitant. Beauty might be the single greatest physical advantage you can have in life*. And yet compared to other other privileges that may arise from race, gender, or sexuality, we don’t talk much about it. (Medium)

• A Billion-Dollar Crypto Gaming Startup Promised Riches and Delivered Disaster: Axie Infinity’s vision of a “play-to-earn” video game has crumbled, and the company behind it now tells the players who bought into the hype it was never about the money, anyway. (Businessweek)

• Amazon fired Chris Smalls. Now the new union leader is one of its biggest problems. What’s next for the face of America’s new labor movement. (Vox)

• As the Great Salt Lake Dries Up, Utah Faces An ‘Environmental Nuclear Bomb’ Climate change and rapid population growth are shrinking the lake, creating a bowl of toxic dust that could poison the air around Salt Lake City. (New York Times)

• The EU after Ukraine: With time, the de facto centralization and depoliticization of the Union’s political economy has inserted a hierarchical center-periphery dimension into the Union. The “rule of law” instituted as the rule of an all-powerful court; the formally rule-based but in practice increasingly discretionary economic policy of the politically independent European Central Bank; and the sanction-supported reeducation in European “values” have led the EU to increasingly resemble a liberal empire, in both an economic and cultural sense, the latter as legitimation for the former. (American Affairs)

Videos of the Week, Mortgage Rates, Retail Trading, and Electric Cars

Friday morning news drop

• Typical mortgage payment could be 30% higher in 5 years, Bank of Canada warns Bank says those who took out a home loan in 2020 or 2021 should brace for higher rates at renewal (CBC)

• Brace yourself: Interest rates could be headed up even faster and higher than we thought Some economists now think Bank of Canada rate could go twice as high as it was pre-pandemic (CBC)

• Retail Trading Is About to Change: Payment for order flow, etc. I don’t know. The basic situation is: Retail investors in US stock markets get to trade for free and get really good execution on their stock trades. Everybody is mad about it. (Money Stuff)

• Timing a Recession vs. Timing the Stock Market Seven out of 10 Republicans think we’re currently in a recession. More than half of all independents and 43% of Democrats think the same. The unemployment rate is still 3.6%. Wages are rising. Consumers are still spending money like crazy. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• Beware of a Bear Market That Is More Than a Cub Many stock investors have never experienced the pain that a long downturn can inflict and may be mistaken that selloffs are always brief. (Bloomberg)

• Record Labels Dig Their Own Grave. And the Shovel is Called TikTok. With each passing month, record labels grow more attached to TikTok—but it now looks more like addiction. Some have reached the point where they won’t release an album until the music goes viral on TikTok. (The Honest Broker)

• The simple, impactful way to make cars cleaner In the age of electric vehicles, higher gas mileage is more important than ever. (Vox)

• How Safe Are Systems Like Tesla’s Autopilot? No One Knows. Automakers and technology companies say they are making driving safer, but verifying these claims is difficult. (New York Times)

• This Optical Illusion Has a Revelation About Your Brain and Eyes: Your pupils may be dilating when you see images like this one as your brain tries to anticipate the near future. (New York Times)

• The Doctors Who Preserved Klay Thompson’s Career—and the Warriors’ Dynasty After missing two full seasons, the Golden State star couldn’t help but think about the operating tables, the surgeons who treated him and the rehab that could’ve broken him (Wall Street Journal)

• Freefall into darkness Scientists study animals to illuminate human psychology. So why are we blind to the mental lives of our caged subjects? (Aeon)

Videos of the Week

CH | 11 | TV | 014 - "Boilt Lips" Rolo and 8ton early season surf trip to some rights...

Shay Sandiford's "Mixed Emotions" Part

DisruptionA quick recap of a two week trip the team took to Miami. Skaters: Nyjah Huston, Dominick Walker, Kwesi Holloway, Becker Dunn, and Cole Hosman.

Reece Wallace - Plane Fun: "My main priority on a bike is to have fun. The Trance X is my go-to and covers all the bases—I can rip trails in the morning, then hit the city jump park on the way home." - Reece Wallace

Hannah Bergemann - Path To The Mountains: Deep in the North Cascade mountains, trail builder Brad Walton paired up with freerider Hannah Bergemann to build and bring a custom feature / line "Whalewolf" to life. and then shoot it. We often (ok, always) take for granted the time that it takes for trails to come to life—more so when features are involved. Built and filmed by Brad Walton.

Revolution Bike Park Host Women's MTB Gravity Jam: Amazing day filming at Revs. Over 140 women took part in a big train down the freeride line. Such a sick day!

Global Food Crisis, Active vs Passive Investing, and EV Growth

Thursday morning news drop

• The war in Ukraine is fuelling a global food crisis. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February dramatically worsened the outlook for already inflated global food prices. While post-pandemic global demand, extreme weather, tightening food stocks, high energy prices, supply chain bottlenecks and export restrictions and taxes have been straining the food market for two years, the recent convergence of all these factors following Russia’s invasion is unprecedented and has sent food inflation rates spiking around the world. (Reuters)

• Tech’s Decade of Stock-Market Dominance Ends, For Now Sector’s tumble is worst since 2002; value investors take victory lap (Wall Street Journal)

• Vanguard Case Study: Active vs. Passive Investing What if Vanguard shareholders had invested actively, rather than with the company’s Growth and Value Index funds? (Morningstar)

• Oil prices are rising, but Canada is getting comparatively less for every barrel — here's why Gap between benchmark oil price and cost for oilsands blend is widening (CBC)

• How ‘Trustless’ Is Bitcoin, Really? In myth, the cryptocurrency is egalitarian, decentralized and all but anonymous. The reality is very different, scientists have found. (New York Times)

• What the TSA could teach Congress about gun control TSA PreCheck uses enhanced background checks to make everyone safer. (Vox)

• Is the $100 Million Car the New $100 Million Artwork? A rare Mercedes sold for $143 million, doubling the last record. Are cars worth that much, or are automobiles just the new asset where billionaires park their funds? (Vanity Fair)

• Rapid EV Growth Hastens the Peak, Then Fall, of Internal Combustion Electric vehicles are taking off even faster than BNEF expected. Soon, the global fleet of gas cars will start to shrink and profoundly effect transportation and energy. (Bloomberg)

• A single photo can change the world. I know, because I took one that did. Can a photograph help end a war? Pictures from Ukraine by combat photographers, including contract photographer James Nachtwey and Associated Press photojournalists Felipe Dana, Mstyslav Chernov and Evgeniy Maloletka, have brought to light the horrific consequences of Russia’s invasion and the unconscionable treatment of innocent civilians. Fifty years ago, I was in the same position as those photographers, working for the Associated Press in Vietnam. (Washington Post)

• Slow water: can we tame urban floods by going with the flow? As we face increased flooding, China’s sponge cities are taking a new course. But can they steer the country away from concrete megadams? (Guardian)

The 60/40 Portfolio, Buying a House, and Gun Control

Wednesday morning news drop

• How the Internet Turned Us Into Content Machines Two new books examine how social media traps users in a brutal race to the bottom. (New Yorker)

• The Office Monsters Are Trying to Claw Their Way Back to 2019 Some corporate leaders are grasping at whatever they can to get back to the way things were. But they might find themselves fighting a culture shift beyond their control. (New York Times)

• The Worst Years Ever For a 60/40 Portfolio: The 13% loss in the S&P 500 year-to-date would be the 8th-worst calendar year return since 1928, it’s even worse for the 60/40 right now. If the year were to end today, the current year-to-date return of -12.1% for a 60/40 portfolio would be the sixth-worst annual return over the past 100 years or so. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• Ready to Buy a House? Just Wait a Few Weeks The market is cooling, but buyers should bide their time before jumping in. (Bloomberg)

• Welcome to the Great Reinfection A repeat encounter with Covid used to be a rarity. But now that Omicron has changed the game, expect reinfections to be the new normal. (Wired)

• Polling is clear: Americans want gun control: A vast majority of Americans supports universal background checks, keeping people with serious mental health issues from buying guns, bans on assault-style weapons and high-capacity magazines, and so-called “red flag laws” that would allow police and family members to seek court orders to temporarily take guns away from those considered a risk to themselves and others. (Vox)