Housing Market, Britany Spears, and the Dot-Com Gamestop

Friday morning news drop

• Vancouver Island and Victoria Q4 Building Permits Construction activity slowed somewhat during the fourth quarter of 2020 though remaining at a relatively high level. Total building permits issued during the fourth quarter of 2020 slipped four per cent to $652.3 million following the strong rebound in the prior quarter coming off the pandemic shock-driven second quarter. To read the full report, click here. (VICA)

• More investors have moved into Greater Victoria's apartment market Greater Victoria and the Island are no longer well-kept secrets for Canadian real estate investors, with numbers released this week by Colliers International showing this region is a bright light on the radar of institutional investors and real estate investment trusts. (Times Colonist)

• Where Have All the Houses Gone? The inventory of homes for sale is startlingly low. The pandemic is part of the reason, but it’s not the whole story. (The Upshot)

• What if it Doesn’t End Badly? The past decade has been one of endless prosperity. At least in risk assets. Since 2011, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 300%. (Irrelevant Investor)

• Dot-Com Survivors Have Wisdom for the GameStop Crowd In October 1999, five months before the internet bubble burst, I wrote a cover story for Fortune magazine titled “Trader Nation.” It was about how middle-class Americans were embracing the stock market, with some quitting their jobs to become day traders. I thought it would be worth talking to the same people to glean lessons about how living through a stock bubble can affect investors for the rest of their lives. (Bloomberg)

• Three r/WallStreetBets GameStop investors explain why they did it, what went wrong, and how much they made There’s no one story of the frenzy of the last few weeks. Some people invested a few bucks as a joke, while others poured in life savings and maxed out credit cards. Some invested after seeing a single Tweet, while others had meticulously followed, analyzed and posted about GameStop for a year. Some thought the whole thing was a joke, while others saw themselves as heroes of an Oscar-winning Wall Street revenge movie. (Business of Business)

• Why Texas Broke: The Crisis That Sank the State Has No Easy Fix When the cold spell plunged the energy powerhouse into darkness, Texans found profound flaws in their infrastructure. Meaningful change may be a long time coming. (Businessweek)

• Born to Run: U.S cannabis enters the sweet spot We know four primary metrics support the U.S cannabis growth story, although the fundamentals aren’t as forgiving as they were last year (Cannabis Confidential)

• Britney Spears Was Never in Control Why did I ever believe a teen girl could hold all the power? (The Cut)

Victoria Housing Market, Canadian Government Debt, Investing, and Art Heists

Thursday morning news drop

• CPABC: Greater Victoria housing starts and major project inventory slowdown in 2020 According to BC Check-Up: Invest, an annual report by the Chartered Professional Accountants of British Columbia (CPABC) on investment trends across the province, the number of housing units that began construction across Greater Victoria declined by 12.4 per cent in 2020 compared to the number started in 2019. (Financial Post)

• It’s never been cheaper for governments to borrow. What could possibly go wrong? The recent report of the Commons finance committee contains 145 separate recommendations for this spring’s federal budget. They urge the government to spend more on everything from long-term care to universal pharmacare to a national early learning and child-care system and beyond: on young and old, on education and housing, on cities, on airports, on and on and on. (Globe and Mail)

• Canadian power companies face climate change reckoning after Texas's free-wheeling electricity grid freezes At least three Canadian utilities saw predictable cash flows in loosely regulated market, but failed to foresee climate risk (Financial Post)

• This Book Is Not About Baseball. But Baseball Teams Swear by It. A psychology book by a Nobel Prize-winning author has become a must-read in front offices. It is changing the sport, bringing us full circle from Moneyball. (New York Times)

• The Power and the Silence: What Goes on Behind the Boss’s Back Power, true power, is a wonder to behold. It is also, for the powerless, unnerving, chiefly because it calls for self-suppression in quantities equal to power’s immense self-confidence. Survival, I learned then, is not our strongest drive, whatever the evolutionists may say. Our strongest drive is to please the people over us, especially those who have no one over them. (Unbound)

• I know what I’ve been put on earth to do Downtown Josh Brown is not only a first-rate CEO, he is a deeply insightful person whose judgment and insights that people rely on everyday. He spent his 20’s broke, miserable and stuck in a dead-end job. He knew he wasn’t meant to be living and working the way he was and there was a massive chip on his shoulder as he turned things around in his 30’s. (Reformed Broker - Downtown Josh Brown)

• The 25 Greatest Art Heists of All Time Although technology has gotten more sophisticated and the means by which heists are committed have changed, burglaries of the world’s greatest artworks continue to be executed often, effectively adding new and bizarre chapters to the annals of art history in the process. (Arts News)

Construction Trades, ESG Ratings, Inflation, and Deforestation

Wednesday morning news drop

• Construction industry fears a skilled-trades shortage Like so many other sectors, the trades are not immune from the wave of baby boomers set to retire in the coming decade, adding urgency to the recruitment of younger and underrepresented people, those in construction say. (Globe and Mail)

• An Agile Approach to Change Management In the wake of Covid-19, organizations are fundamentally rethinking their product and service portfolios, reinventing their supply chains, pursuing large-scale organizational restructuring and digital transformation, and rebuilding to correct systemic racism from the ground up. Traditional change management process won’t cut it. The author borrows from agile software development processes to reinvent the change management playbook. (Harvard Business Review)

• Buy the Dip If the stock market had a mantra, it would be “buy the dip.” Today, millions of market participants repeated this over and over again. Today, the S&P 500 was down nearly 2% at its low point, but it stormed a late comeback to finish positive. This sort of move has happened on 121 other occasions since 1970, or 1% of all days. But what’s more interesting than how often they happen is where they happen. (Irrelevant Investor)

• An inside look at ESG ratings and why they should matter to you As interest in sustainable investing has grown, so too have the number of companies that now receive environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings. Sustainalytics, a Morningstar company and a globally recognized provider of ESG research, ratings and data, has been continually focused on expanding its research, with coverage that’s climbed to over 12,000 companies today. (Bloomberg)

• Why Most Entrepreneurs Aren't Delegating Effectively You might be wondering why delegation is so important in the first place. After all, if you're running a small business, you might be perfectly capable of handling most of the work by yourself. (Entrepreneur)

• The American dream is now in Denmark A conversation with Danish businessman Djaffar Shalchi about why he wants to make rich people like himself pay more in taxes (The Ink)

• Four Reasons Not to Worry About U.S. Inflation The economy is a long way from capacity, inflation is slow-moving, inflation expectations are well-anchored, and the Fed has tools to keep inflation in check. (Bloomberg)

• Hipgnosis Is Buying Music Libraries — and Plans to Spend $1 Billion More A former music manager’s company has acquired more than 100 publishing catalogs, including a 50 percent stake in Neil Young’s, as well as hits performed by Rihanna and Shakira, and is eyeing a $1 billion-plus deal pipeline. (Hollywood Reporter)

• The Psychology Behind the Boom in Collectibles The boom in collectibles doesn’t make sense if you’re thinking exclusively from the rational part of your brain. But most people don’t think exclusively from the rational part of their brain. (Wealth of Common Sense)

• Cutting down forests: what are the drivers of deforestation? Since the turn of the millennium, the world has been losing around 5 million hectares of forest every year. Nearly all of this occurs in the tropics; almost half of all deforestation takes place in Brazil and Indonesia. Three-quarters is driven by agriculture. Beef production is responsible for 41% of deforestation; palm oil and soybeans account for another 18%; and logging for paper and wood across the tropics, another 13%. These industries are also dominant in a few key countries. Effective solutions will be focused on these agricultural activities and those countries where most deforestation occurs. (Our World in Data)

Construction, Stock Market, Bitcoin ETFs, and Chard Ferch

Tuesday morning news drop

• Statistics Canada hastily revises inflation higher after concerns about methodology Reversals of this magnitude to a major economic indicator are rare (Financial Post)

• A woman’s perspective on life in the construction field Leading my own construction jobs was incredibly rewarding and a huge leap forward in my career, however, I couldn’t help but notice moments when I was treated differently as a woman, than if I were a man in the same role. This is the hard truth but in time, as the industry evolves and more women take on power positions, I know there will be change. (On-Site)

• Covid Housing Boom Is Even Bigger Than Imagined The latest Fed data on household finances shows the extent to which record-low mortgage rates and surging home prices turbocharged the economic recovery. (Bloomberg)

• Reinventing Capitalism – The Bitcoin ETF Opportunity The SEC and the U.S. Treasury has a chance to lead by working with the crypto community to create a viable framework for technologies and securities that helps smooth capital flow across these barriers. (ETF Trends)

• How Does the Stock Market Perform When Interest Rates Rise? The truth is there is no rule of thumb with these things. But rising rates, in and of themselves, don’t always spell doom for the stock market. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• What the Bond Market Is Telling Us About the Biden Economy A recent rise in interest rates hints that a recovery is on the way, but it could also mean harder choices ahead on spending. (New York Times)

• The 20th Annual Rich List, the Definitive Ranking of What Hedge Fund Managers Earned in 2020 A bad year for humanity was a wonderful year for the hedge fund elite. (Institutional Investor)

• How vulnerable is the world? Sooner or later a technology capable of wiping out human civilisation might be invented. How far would we go to stop it? (Aeon)

• Music Videos Are Over-the-Top Again, Thank God Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion are leading the charge for the return of the elaborate music video. (Vice)

Chad Ferch - Victoria, BC: Vans Canada ripper Chad Ferch filmed some sick clips with Mike Zinger in Victoria, BC before he moved across the water. Grind manny game is strong! Stoked to see more from this dude.

Victoria Housing Market, QAnon, Beto vs. Cruz, and Pete Devries

Monday morning new drop

• QAnon's corrosive impact on the U.S. Tens of millions of Americans believe QAnon's core -- and false -- theory that an evil cabal of Satan-worshipping elites commits atrocities against children and controls much of the world. Where does this movement stand and who has it impacted? Lesley Stahl reports. (60 Minutes)

• Beto Wants to Save Texas From Ted Cruz While the senator was galavanting in Cancún, O’Rourke has been on the ground, fuming at a state leadership that does not believe in climate change. (Vanity Fair)

• Destroyed Texas’s Electric Grid “Seconds and minutes” from total catastrophe, the state struggled to handle an extreme weather event, which led to the largest forced power outage in U.S. history. (Bloomberg)

• Why an Animated Flying Cat With a Pop-Tart Body Sold for Almost $600,000 A fast-growing market for digital art, ephemera and media is marrying the world’s taste for collectibles with cutting-edge technology. (New York Times)

• Are Broker Commissions Too High? Online home buyers do much of the work involved in acquiring a house. So why are brokers’ fees still calculated under the old system? (New York Times)

• Inflation On The Way? Cotton And Lumber Say It's Already Here It's not just lumber prices that are skyrocketing and homebuilders who are taking the hit (and passing it along to homebuyers): Costs are soaring for commercial construction as well, hitting general contractors. (Investing) This is how inflation starts. (Oklahoman)

• How long do overheated markets last? The market for detached properties is clearly overheated out there. With about half of houses going in bidding wars and the median sale at 26% above assessed value so far in February, it’s an incredibly stressful time to be house hunting. That stress is starting to take a toll, with some buyers are dropping out and waiting until things calm down. In Toronto there are reports of that starting to have an impact on the market, with properties set for bidding wars not selling, then being relisted at the higher price that the sellers wanted all along which is leading to building inventory. (House Hunt Victoria)

Arc'teryx Presents: Happy Recluse Pete Devries and Jeremy Koreski, two long-time partners in the mission to surf and photograph the best waves Vancouver Island have to offer, take the extra step into their deep backyard returning to a wave that had shown past potential for a legendary session. In the process, Pete tells of his life as a ”happy recluse," at home in cold water.

More McDavid, Do a Kickflip, Anti-Vaxxers, and Hackers

The weekend news drop

• Waste Not Why financial co-ops are the natural choice for Canadians transitioning toward a more sustainable, circular economy (Walrus)

• The Man Who Abandoned Value When Arne Alsin wrote about investing in disruptive companies two years ago, one commentator called it “one of the dumbest articles ever written.” After a 274 percent year, Alsin isn’t the one who looks dumb. (Institutional Investor)

• Anti-Vaxxers Misuse Federal Data to Falsely Claim COVID Vaccines Are Dangerous VAERS, a database of reports of vaccine side effects, is being abused by people trying to sow fear. It’s not the first time. (Vice)

• Anatomy of a conspiracy: With COVID, China took leading role From Beijing and Washington to Moscow and Tehran, political leaders and allied media effectively functioned as misinformation superspreaders, using their stature to amplify politically expedient conspiracies already in circulation. But it was China — not Russia – that took the lead in spreading foreign disinformation about COVID-19’s origins, as it came under attack for its early handling of the outbreak. (AP)

• The Long Hack: How China Exploited a U.S. Tech Supplier For years, U.S. investigators found tampering in products made by Super Micro Computer Inc. The company says it was never told. Neither was the public. (Bloomberg)

• Police Forces Have Long Tried to Weed Out Extremists in the Ranks. Then Came the Capitol Riot. At least 30 law enforcement officers from around the country took part in the rally on Jan. 6 that preceded the riot. Many are now being investigated. (New York Times)

Deforestation, Market Mayhem, Cars, Bitcoin and the Dee Brown Pump

Friday morning news drop

• The world has lost one-third of its forest, but an end of deforestation is possible 10,000 years ago 57% of the world’s habitable land was covered by forest. That’s 6 billion hectares. Today, only 4 billion hectares are left. The world has lost one-third of its forest – an area twice the size of the United States. (Our World In Data)

• Impacts of climate change addressed in new B.C. program B.C.'s new $20.7-million Climate Adaptation Program features a range of projects throughout British Columbia that promise to increase the resiliency of the highway network and help lessen the adverse effects of climate change. (Journal of Commerce)

• 12 Things I Remind Myself When Markets Go Crazy The problem with having all of these options available at your fingertips is that it’s never been easier to experience FOMO. The sheer number of assets we have to invest in these days combined with rising markets and social media means the fear of missing out will always be trading at new all-time highs. (Wealth of Common Sense)

• Toppy stock markets spark more "bubble" chatter A strong start for world equities in 2021 after the fastest bear-to-bull market switch last year has prompted market mavens to flag worries about pricey assets, with BofA calling it the “mother-of-all asset bubbles”. (Reuters)

• How Car Collecting Powered Through the Pandemic The virus hastened the rise of online sales, as connoisseurs of vintage vehicles found more time to spend with their socially distanced hobby. (New York Times)

• How are bitcoin created? An illustrated guide to bitcoin mining, blockchains, and the “minting” process of cryptocurrency’s most popular coin. (The Hustle)

• Scorsese: Il Maestro: Federico Fellini and the lost magic of cinema There was one director whom everyone knew, one artist whose name was synonymous with cinema and what it could do. It was a name that instantly evoked a certain style, a certain attitude toward the world. In fact, it became an adjective. Let’s say you wanted to describe the surreal atmosphere at a dinner party, or a wedding, or a funeral, or a political convention, or for that matter, the madness of the entire planet—all you had to do was say the word “Felliniesque” and people knew exactly what you meant. (Harper’s Magazine)

• Oyster Lovers - How to select the perfect oyster We are beyond fortunate to have the world’s best oysters grown right here on Vancouver Island. Oysters thrive in our clean, plankton and algae rich waters. Up and down the west and east side of our island, oysters are grown in fjords, islets, bays and any small cove that provides the right combination of food source from pristine waters. (YAM)

• Reebok to Release the Pump Omni Zone II To Retro 30 Years After Dee Brown’s Iconic “No-Look” Dunk stole the spotlight during the 1991 NBA All-Star Weekend Dunk Contest (YouTube) against Shawn Kemp. With old sneaker silhouettes more in demand than new ones, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that brands are unearthing some retro gems for re-release. The original black-based design is slated to drop on March 5th. (Kicks On Fire)

CRA Privacy Breach, Amazon, Investing, GameStop, and Crazy NBA Players

Thursday morning news drop

• CRA suspends online accounts of over 100,000 Canadians after login credentials found for sale on dark web The Canada Revenue Agency had to suspend the accounts of more than 100,000 users of its online service because it detected troves of leaked login information on the dark web that could have led to data breaches. If your login data has probably been compromised through a third-party breach and you will need to contact CRA in order to regain access to your online account, particularly if you plan on filing your 2020 taxes online starting next week. (National Post)

• Amazon’s Great Labor Awakening Covid-19 has cemented the e-commerce giant’s hold on the economy — but it has also spurred employees all around the country to organize. (New York Times)

• Out in the Cold: uneven government support negatively impacts Island business John Wilson talks to Douglas about why narrow criteria for government funding has left communities stranded. (Douglas)

• Covid Housing Boom Is Even Bigger Than Imagined The latest Fed data on household finances shows the extent to which record-low mortgage rates and surging home prices turbocharged the economic recovery. (Bloomberg)

• Bond yields are not good predictors of inflation Bond market complacence should not be taken as strong evidence against the risk of overheating. The postwar history of US and foreign bond markets shows that bond yields are not good predictors of inflation. Yields largely reflect the behavior of inflation over many years in the past, not the future. It is far from clear whether inflation will rise significantly, but if it does, bond markets are not likely to have predicted it. (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

• The Worst Year Ever for Value 2020 was the worst year for the value factor. Worse even than 1999. (Irrelevant Investor)

• Clubhouse, a Tiny Audio Chat App, Breaks Through The 11-month-old app has exploded in popularity, even as it grapples with harassment, misinformation and privacy issues. (New York Times)

• The Beach Bum Who Beat Wall Street and Made Millions on GameStop Mike McCaskill spent years scouring the stock market and betting on long shots. Then he found the opportunity that changed his life—and helped spark the mother of all short squeezes. (The Ringer)

• Many top NBA players hesitant to promote coronavirus vaccines Players are expressing apprehension about accepting invitations to participate in league-sponsored public service announcements to bolster broader acceptance of the coronavirus vaccine. (ESPN)

• The Buffett Indicator at All-Time Highs: Is This Cause for Concern? In 2001, Warren Buffett famously described the stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio as “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” (Visual Capitalist)

Bonds, Biden, Online Shopping and the GOAT

Wednesday morning news drop

• Bonds Are Getting Crushed These days people are more concerned with losing out than they are about losing money. But it wasn’t too long ago that people spent time worrying about the most boring part of their portfolio. (Irrelevant Investor)

• Biden’s huge bet: the economic consequences of ‘acting big’ Joe Biden’s strategy for the US economy is the most radical departure from prevailing policies since Ronald Reagan’s free market reforms 40 years ago. With plans for public borrowing and spending on a scale not seen since the second world war, the administration is undertaking a huge fiscal experiment. The whole world is watching. (Financial Times)

• Future Returns: Why Family Offices Are Drawn Toward Venture Capital Throughout the last decade, wealthy families have gravitated away from hedge funds to private investments, including private equity and venture capital. A big reason is that entrepreneurs who are comfortable with risk, and evaluating management teams and the potential success or failure of a business idea, are usually the reason a family became wealthy. (Penta)

• “The United States of Amazon.” Amazon Has Transformed the Geography of Wealth and Power, Understanding America in the giant company’s shadow (The Atlantic)

• How sneakerheads ruined online shopping Why shopping — for everything from the PS5 to the Nugget couch — got so competitive. (Vox)

• Clash of the GOATs: Why Wayne Gretzky is the greatest team sports player ever -- not Tom Brady (ESPN)

• Tales from the trenches: Mentorship lessons learned Whether you are considering how to be a valuable mentor, or how to navigate mentorship as a mentee, the following five lessons I have learned may help you make the most of mentorship activities: (On-Site)

Climate, Sustainability, Investing and Wealth, and Victoria Real Estate

Tuesday morning news drop

• Bill Gates: How the world can avoid a climate disaster Bill Gates says he is determined as ever to drive innovation "Without innovation, we will not solve climate change. We won't even come close," Gates says. Anderson Cooper reports for 60 Minutes. (60 Minutes)

• The 100 Most Sustainable Companies Sustainability means many things, but companies usually are judged on a series of environmental, social, and corporate governance metrics that measure how a company’s managers make decisions and plan for the future in areas beyond profitability. (Barron’s)

• T’ll Do: Impeachment did not prevail, but Trump still lost. Thanks to their integrity, a clear majority of the Senate voted to condemn the former president as an insurrectionist against the United States. The 57–43 margin wasn’t enough to convict under the Constitution. It wasn’t enough to formally disqualify Trump from ever again seeking office in the United States. But practically? It will do as a solemn and eternal public repudiation of Trump’s betrayal of his oath of office. (The Atlantic)

• Bitcoin’s Volatility Should Burn Investors. It Hasn’t. Wild price swings normally have a way of reversing fortunes. So how do you explain when they don’t? (Bloomberg)

• The Test of Time: Art as an Investment 80%-90% of your investment portfolio should be in income-producing assets. The rest you can leave for non-income producing assets like gold, Bitcoin, and art. Why? Because non-income producing assets are priced solely based on what someone else is willing to pay for them in the future. Since there are no underlying cashflows, price is based on perception. (Of Dollars And Data)

• Biden and the Fed Leave 1970s Inflation Fears Behind After years of dire inflation predictions that failed to pan out, the people who run fiscal and monetary policy in Washington have decided the risk of “overheating” the economy is much lower than the risk of failing to heat it up enough. (New York Times)

• The Algebra of Wealth Opportunity remains abundant, even as the headwinds of policy make it increasingly difficult for the young to capture their fair share of the spoils. Achieving economic security requires hard work, talent, and a tremendous amount of focus on . . . money. Yes, some people’s genius will be a tsunami that overwhelms a lack of focus and discipline. Assume you are not that person. (No Mercy / No Malice)

• When are high prices a bubble in Victoria? The market for single family homes is completely off the hook out there. 55% are selling for over the asking price, often for tens of thousands of dollars over. Many of those over-asks are going in unconditional offers to strengthen offers, with buyers struggling to do pre-inspections while COVID restrictions mean that many are committing a million dollars based on a half hour viewing, or even sight unseen. (House Hunt Victoria)