Recessions, Investing, Bull Markets, and Roman Concrete

Tuesday morning articles

  • Economist Says His Indicator That Predicted Eight US Recessions Is Wrong This Year: Cambell Harvey’s work showed link between curve inversion and growth Strong labor demand, risk avoidance support US economy now. (Bloomberg)

  • Wall Street’s sleuth of bears is growing: Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.4% last week. The index is now up 8.9% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03 and down 18.8% from its January 3, 2022 closing high of 4,796.56. Meanwhile, the market’s many bears got more company. (Sam Ro)

  • Everything Is Up In This Bull Market: If you’re not making money in this environment, it’s not because it’s a “bear market”. Don’t be one of those investors left holding the bag in the few remaining stocks that are not working, while almost everything else is. (All Star Charts)

  • Your Investing Strategy Just Failed. It’s Time to Double Down. The standard portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds just delivered one of its worst years in history. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad approach. (Wall Street Journal)

  • Your stuff is actually worse now: How the cult of consumerism ushered in an era of badly made products. (Vox)

  • Consciousness’ in Robots Was Once Taboo. Now It’s the Last Word. The pursuit of artificial awareness may be humankind’s next moonshot. But it comes with a slurry of difficult questions. (New York Times)

  • Riddle solved: Why was Roman concrete so durable? An unexpected ancient manufacturing strategy may hold the key to designing concrete that lasts for millennia. (MIT)

  • Is Chelsea target Enzo Fernandez worth £105million after only 80 senior matches? Within the space of six months, the 21-year-old went his first 22 matches unbeaten with his new club, announcing himself on the European stage by shining in midfield as Benfica topped a Champions League group featuring Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, then broke into Argentina’s starting XI during the World Cup and immediately established himself as an indispensable contributor to a historic triumph in Qatar. (The Athletic)